A crystal ball made of agents

TitleA crystal ball made of agents
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2010
AuthorsCastillo, J. M.
JournalInternational Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence
ISSN1989-1660
IssueA Direct Path to Intelligent Tools
Volume1
Number3
Date Published12/2010
Pagination13-17
Abstract

This article presents an agent-based solution to model the opinions of an experts group with the aim of predicting possible future scenarios. The need to envision the future is not new; it has existed since the beginning of human-kind. What it is new is the applicable technology that is available in a specific period of time. It is not usual to find a critical social system which evolves according to predictable guidelines or tendencies. Because of that reason, technical prediction based on past and present data is not reliable. This paper includes the process description of eliciting information from a group of experts and a real case study.

KeywordsForesight, Multi-Agent Systems, Prevention, Prospective, Scenarios
DOI10.9781/ijimai.2010.132
URLhttp://www.ijimai.org/journal/sites/default/files/IJIMAI20101_3_2.pdf
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IJIMAI20101_3_2.pdf282.88 KB